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Carbon Dioxide Vs. Global Temp
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  My biggest argument with global warming has always been not that the Earth is warming. One can plainly see by looking at the numbers that the Earth has warmed over the past 50 years. My argument has always been about carbon dioxide being responsible for the increase in temperature as opposed to the natural patterns and cycles that the Earth goes through.
  There are an overwhelming number of variables that come in to play when we talk about the temperature of the Earth. Atmospheric cycles, ocean cycles, the ENSO cycle (El Nino/ La Nina), solar cycles, ice caps, winds.....they all have an effect. Everything is inter-connected.
  The defitinion of climate is the average weather over a certain location for the past 30 years. Well...in a planet that's 4 billion years old one would be foolish to think that 30 years is a long enough timeframe to determine average. The planet doesn't know that, it doesn't play by 30 year increments that were introduced by man. Some of the cycles listed above can last as long as 50 years, 100 years, even 200 years before they change. So in order to get a accurate measure of exactly what's going on with our planet you can't just cherry pick and take a small increment of time. You have to go further back. So I decided to do just that!
  Below we'll take a look at the 20th century as a whole and examine what the Earths temperature has done compared to the amount of carbon dioxide emmitted into the atmosphere. Strap on your seat belts....your going to enjoy this one!
  The blue line represents the Earth's average temperature for each year from 1880 to the year 2004. At the same time the red line shows of how much carbon dioxide was emmitted into the atmosphere. At first glance it appears that the Earths average temperature increases consistently with the increase of CO2. But does it really?
  As we take a closer look at the chart one can plainly see that the Earth's average temperature (blue line) decreased in two significantly large time slots. The first one was from roughly 1870 -1920 and the second one was from 1945 - 1975. However, during that same exact timeframe the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere continued to increase at a farily dramatic rate. So how is that possible? If carbon dioxide (CO2) is solely responsible for causing the Earth to warm (according to the alarmists' theory) how is it possible that the temperature of the Earth was falling? This same exact thing has actually started happening right now (from 2004 to the present). So obviously there are other elements at work here. Other natural cycles and patterns that the Earth goes through that change not only the temperature of the planet but the climate as well.
  Below is a chart that shows the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). This is an index that shows the average temperature of the Pacific Ocean, north of the equatorial waters. It goes through two cycles which on average last from 25 to 35 years. They are the warming cycle and the cooling cycle. Now remember, the Earth is made up of 70% water and 30% land. Out of that 70% a large majority of that is comprised of the Pacific Ocean. Well, when the Earth's average temperature is calculated it includes land observations and estimated water temperatures of the Pacific Ocean through satellite data. So naturally when the waters of the Pacific are warm the average temperature of the Earth will be warm. When the waters are cool the average temperature of the Earth will be cool.
  Look at the chart below. It just so happens that the last time the PDO was in a cooling phase (prior to right now) was waaay back in the 1950s, '60s and '70s. Is it a coincidence that this happens to also be the same time the Earth was cooling? We can take it a step further however. During this same timeframe the amount of CO2 emmitted into the atmosphere was steadily increasing. That's plainly seen in the first chart shown above.
  
  We can also take a look at the solar cycle. The sun goes through cycles as well. The amount of radiation radiated into space changes depending on the amount of solar activity. More radiation is correlated to times of high solar activity (sun storms). Less radiation is correlated to times of low solar activity. It also just so happens that there's a connection between times of high solar activity and the Earth's average temperature increasing and vice versa. You can clearly see on the link below that while the Earth was cooling the sun was going through a low activity phase. At the same time CO2 was increasing steadily.
  The link below takes a look at both of them and how the temperature of the Earth changed. It's clear that the PDO (temperature of the ocean) and the solar cycle influence our temperature. Again, here's the argument though. If it were carbon dioxide that was solely responsible than the temperature of the Earth would continue to warm steadily throughout the period. This hasn't happened and continues not to happen as we move into 2010.
  http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SUNOCEANSTEMPS.jp
  You can make the claim that im cherry picking. You can say that im taking specific time slots over the past 300 years and only showing where the temperature did not match up to the emissions of carbon dioxide. For just as many examples as I have shown here of CO2 not being responsible, an alarmist can show just the opposite. But that's the whole point here! There's not enough data, there's not enough concrete evidence to solely link CO2 for the warming of the planet. I have just shown two examples of patterns that impact temperature but there are numerous others that I haven't even gotten into. Now do I think going green is a good thing. Sure! I mean after all we only have one planet so we should all try to do our part to take care of it. But don't start telling me that I have to buy fancy light bulbs or can't take that trip to Florida because it is emitting to much carbon dioxide which is causing our planet to warm. Because that theory has not been proven.
- Blog post
- 2 months ago
- Views: 434
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PDO ...Pacific Decadal Oscilla
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  One of the most fascinating things about meterology happens to be the same thing that makes it so difficult to forecast.... uncertainty. It's a field that's inexact because all of the variables that go in to this wonderful science are not completely understood. At least as far as climate is concerned.
  I have always believed that everything happens in cycles and patterns. Heat waves, hurricane frequency even the melting and refreezing of the arctic sea ice. The sun goes through solar cycles, the moon goes through different phases and the temperatures of the oceans change. It's just nature going through its natural processes. Im sure a lot of you out there wouldn't argue that.
  But there's a cycle out there that you may never of heard of before...and it happens to have some of the biggest impacts on our weather today. It's the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). It's a temperature change in the waters of the Pacific Ocean. Its impacts are mainly felt during the winter months. Now before we really get into the PDO I feel that I should tell you that to this day, scientists still don't completely understand what drives this cycle. Nor do they completely understand the reasoning as to why some cycles are much shorter and less intense than others. But there is evidence to support, which im going to show later, that when the phases change the average temperature of the Earth changes with it.
  The PDO goes through two different phases. The warming phase and the cooling phase. As you can probably already imagine the warming phase is a period of time where the Pacific waters warm anywhere from 1 to 2 degrees fairenheit above the normal temperature. The cooling phase is the complete opposite. It's a period of time where the Pacific waters cool anywhere from 1 to 2 degrees below the normal. Now this is not the entire Pacific Ocean, it's just the waters off the western coast of North America. But it's still a fairly large portion of it and when you change the temperature of a large body of water like this it's going to have some kind of impact on our atmosphere. Whether its air temperature changes or intensity of storms, etc. Whatever the case may be that sudden change in ocean temperature will have an effect on our atmosphere.
  Below is an example of a cool phase PDO to the right and a warm phase PDO to the left. Now if you look at this carefully you would almost think that it would be just the opposite because of the overall temperatures of the waters of the northern central Pacific. But remember, this cycle is for the waters directly off the North American coast.
  WARM & COOL PDO's
  Over the years it has been found that the cooling phase produces colder and snowier winters for a large portion of the northern and eastern United States. This is because the effects cause the pressures to fall leading to troughing. This in turn allows the colder air from the arctic to spill into the lower 48 states. The last big cooling phase we experienced was in the 1960s and 1970s. Winters on average, were very cold and snowy during this timeframe.
  Then the 1980s and 1990s arrived and the phase went positive, or warm. Winters on average were not as harsh. It just so happens that this is also a time in history when it was discovered that the average temperture of the Earth was starting to warm up pretty dramatically as well. Sure there were a few years mixed in there that saw lots of snow and cold. But the overall trend was for warmer winters. As we began this century the pattern continued. We were about 25 years into the warming phase of the PDO and big snow storms and arctic outbreaks were few and far between.
  But then in the fall of 2007/'08 the phase went cold again. The past couple of winters here in Chicago have been cold and filled with snow. As a matter of fact O'hare has averaged 55 inches of snow over the past two winters which is 25 inches above normal! Temperatures have averaged a full 2 degrees colder than normal.
  Below is a look at the PDO and its corresponding phase over the past 100 + years. (Please note that the the last three years of this phase got cut off...they are cooling again. The numbers sank down to cooler than -1 this past winter)
  Is it a coincidence? Well there are certainly other factors that come into play with this but it's hard to argue against the facts.
  Some of those other factors include El Nino and La Nina years. But these seem to be smaller, natural cycles reacting to the overall pattern that the PDO is in. For example, an El Nino is a warming phase of the equatorial Pacific waters. It becomes more frequent in a cooling PDO as it tries to balance everything out. La Nina's are cooling phases of the equatorial Pacific waters. These cycles are more frequently occurring during warming phases of the PDO. This overall cycle, which is called ENSO is part of the reason why not every single year in a certain PDO holds true to form. But when looking at the big picture you can see the long term trends.
  Below is a chart showing the phase of the PDO vs global temperature over the past 100 + years. Now you will note that the overall trend of the temperature of the earth is warming. At least that's the way it looks over the past century. But look what happened when the PDO was in the cool phase during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s.... the earth cooled down considerably from its rapid warming pace.
  PDO's vs Global Temperature
  So to conclude one can see that the cooling phase of the PDO does not change the overall trend of global warming. But there's no arguing the fact that it slows the pocess down. It's been almost 30 years since the last cooling phase so it will be very interesting to see just what happens over the next decade. What does this mean for you? It means get ready for cooler changes that will produce overall colder and snowier winters for the next 15 to 30 years.
  -CS
- Blog post
- 2 months ago
- Views: 226
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Beach Alert!
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  The beach alert is .... you better head to the beach this weekend! lol Get set to sweat my friends as the heat and the humidity finally returns to the Chicago area.
  A pattern shift is in the process of developing as the PNA (Pacific North America) pulls out of its positive phase and into the negative. At the same time the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is heading towards neutral. All of this will allow that deep trough that has positioned itself over the Northeast and Great Lakes states to finally retreat up into Canada. At the same time a piece of energy from the southwestern ridge will branch outward across the Central Plains states.
  This means that the pleasant weather that we felt in July will quickly turn oppressively hot and humid this weekend. Acclimation will be a big issue with this. The combination of the heat and the humidity will make it feel close to 100 degrees on Sunday if not hotter. This kind of heat puts a lof of stress on the body and it will become very easy to over-exert yourself if your going to be out and about.
  Lollapalooza begins this weekend so many of you will be heading down towards Grant Park. Remember to keep yourself hydrated. Drink plenty of fluids (non-alcoholic! lol). Even if your not thirsty....drink another bottle of water. Wear light weight, loose fitting clothing. Wear a hat to shade your face from the sun and try to stay in the shade if at all possible. Also, make sure you keep applying the sunscreen as the UV Index will be very high.
  The good news is, the oppressive heat and humidity wont last long. A cold front should move into the area by Monday. It is still unclear as to how hot Monday will be. The timing of the front will determine how warm our temperatures get. But once the front pulls through it will put an end to the Texas-like heat! Temperatures will return to more normal levels as we head into the middle of next week.
  -CS
- Blog post
- 3 months ago
- Views: 193
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What Happened To Global Warmin
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  Well thus far it's been the summer that wasn't for us here in Chicago. July 2009 is now officially the coldest ever in recorded history here in the city. As a matter of fact we're a full degree colder this month than any other previous July since the official recording site was moved away from the lake.
  But its not just us, almost half of the country is going through the same thing. Almost every location that you can think of east of the Mississippi River, including Florida, is experiencing one of the coolest summers on record. The third week of July (Wednesday, July 15th - Wednesday, July 22nd) brought almost 900 record lows to cities across the country. That's right, I said almost 900! If you think that's a lot, how about this....during that same timeframe more than 1000 record low maximum temperatures were recorded. In other words it's the coldest high temperature ever recorded for that date. Combined thats almost 2000 cold records that were set last week alone!
  I think what's most impressive is not the rate at which these records are falling but by how much. Lets take Tallahassee for example. Last Wednesday Tallahassee set a record low temperature of 60 degrees. That was seven degrees colder than the previous record of 67 degrees set more than 80 years ago. Think about what you just read there for a second. I said that's more than seven degrees colder than the previous record low.
  Lets put that into perspective shall we. Our record high temperature for today is 103 degrees. Imagine for a moment that we broke our record high by 7 degrees today. That would mean that the high temperature would top out at a whopping 110 degrees! Could you imagine how hot and intense that would feel!? That would be stifling and unbareable! Well believe it or not it's just a small sliver of the magnitude of just how cool, relative to average, that this airmass really is.
  It does have its advantages though. Here in Chicago the price of natural gas is down more than 30% this month because of the lack of air conditioning use. ComEd has stated that on average, your energy bill has a savings of a little more than $50 from this same time last year. But this is the time where we expect the heat. A time where we really dont mind the heat. As a matter of fact, although the weather has been beautiful as of late, many of you would like it a little warmer so you can lay out on the beach. Unfortuantely, the chilly weather (relative to average) shows no signs of releasing its grip anytime soon.
  So far July has brought Chicago a whopping 15 days with temperatures 79 degrees or cooler. Keep in mind that the AVERAGE high temperature for this time of the year is 84. Just how rare is that you ask? That's so rare that it's only the fourth time that this has happened since the 1880's when records began.
  If you go back and take a look at the analogs from previous years, given the pattern that we're in, it would suggest that August will follow suit. The wonderful thing about that would be even though it may not be as hot out there as you would like, at least we have silenced all of the global warming fanatics for a while. In case you didn't know, last year was the coolest year, globally, in a long time. This includes land and ocean surface temperatures.
  This year, however, will NOT be as cool as last year overall even though we're seeing even colder temperatures right now. That's right, it will NOT be as cool. The reason why is because of the tremendous warming of the equatorial Pacific waters thanks to El Nino. The average temperatures of the equitorial Pacific have warmed more then 4 degrees since May 1st. The Pacific Ocean is enormous. So when it comes time to average out all of the temperatures around the world and compare the numbers this will rank on the warm side of things again. The funny thing is that water doesn't have the same characteristics as land. It takes quite some time to warm or cool water as opposed to land surfaces. Therefore it wouldn't surprise me one bit if we were warmer again overall next year as well.
  But now you know why and we will certainly all remeber how chilly, relative to average, it has been. So when the final statistics show that we were significantly warmer this year than last year and you start hearing all of the global warming phanatics yelling and screaming remember this blog. El Nino is a naturally occurring warming event that happens every 4 to 7 years. This chilly weather that is occurring right now, according to records, only happens every 40 to 60 years! So you make the call. Is it really global warming? Or are we in a larger global cycle? One of which man has not been around long enough to judge whether we're warming or not?
- Blog post
- 4 months ago
- Views: 286
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Coldest July On Record?
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  What a ridiculous summer this has been so far for us here in Chicago! Its bad enough that we have such a small window of nice weather this time of the year to begin with. But its even worse when that window shrinks because "Mother Nature" has an attitude! lol
  July 2009 has felt anything but normal! So far we're on pace to set the record for the coldest July in recorded history. Through the first 18 days of the month average high temperatures in the city are a meager 76.3 degrees which represents the coldest start to the month ever. That previous record was set back in 1945 (76.5).
  The reason? A stubborn negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has teamed up with a neutral to positive PNA (Pacific North America). Combined the two have created a summer thus far that we'd much rather forget! The NAO can shift from week to week. So to see it negative this time of the year is certainly nothing out of the ordinary. However, the fact that it has gone negative during the same time that the PNA has gone positive is just lousy timing! In its negative phase, the NAO brings troughing to the eastern half of the United States. This allows cool air from Canada to spill into the country.
  The Pacific North American teleconnection pattern is one of the most prominent modes of low frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics. This is a global pattern that greatly influences temperatures not only across the country but across the entire world. When the PNA is in its positive mode it brings above average temperatures and ridging to western Canada. But as the saying goes, what goes up must come down! So while the west burns the east shivers. Below average temperatures develop across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the deep south.
  So in terms of longitude and latitidue, both of these patterns are in their cooling phases for the city of Chicago. This means that if your looking for typical beach weather... day in and day out you better head to Miami. Now these patterns can last as long as two months or as little as a week. So it should be interesting to see how August pans out. But forecast guidence suggests that the PNA goes strongly positive as we head into August. That would be absolutely horrible for beach goers. However, it appears that we're going to catch a break because the NAO is forecasted to go positive in August with would eliminate the intense cooling from Canada. The fact that the PNA is forecasted to be so strongly positive though will prevent us from getting too hot next month. But at least normal temperatures (mid to upper 80s) look feasable.
  Below is a link to the National Weather Service. This will show the forecasted phases of the PNA and the NAO.
  Click here.
- Blog post
- 4 months ago
- Views: 465
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SPC's SLIGHT RISK
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  We're in the heart of severe weather season now across Chicagoland and I feel its important that I explain to you the wording from the SPC. Trust me, I know how confusing it can be when you start to hear things like "Slight Risk" or "5% Tornado" probability. It's confusing because the SPC breaks everything down by percentages rather than using easy to understand words.
  So with that said I will explain what all of there wording means so you will be able to follow along throughout the summer.
  First and foremost lets define what severe weather is. A severe thunderstorm is classified "severe" when at least one of three criteria is met. The storm must posess either 1) wind gusts of 58 mph (50 knots) or greater, 2) hail of at least 1 inch in diameter or greater and/or 3) a tornado. Believe it or not, severe weather does not include dangerous lightning or flash flooding. Which I think is a little strange considering the fact that more people are killed each year from flash flooding and lightning than any of the three criteria that deem a storm severe to begin with. But for the sake of the definition, there you have it. A severe thunderstorm warning is then issued by the local National Weather Service once any one of the above conditions are met.
  A severe weather outlook is usually issued a day or two in advance from the Storm Prediction Center. This outlook is issued in one of three different categories. They are SLIGHT, MODERATE and HIGH risk areas. In terms of real estate a SLIGHT risk is alwyas the largest covering an area no less than the state of Oklahoma minus the panhandle.
  A SLIGHT RISK area is an area where well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected but in low numbers and low coverage. It is an area that is outlined by the SPC to show greater forecasting confidence of seeing severe weather but doesn't guarantee it. Depending on the size of the risk area anywhere from 5-25 reports of damaging winds (58+ mph), 5-25 reports of large hail (1" or greater in diamater) and/or 1-5 tornadoes can be expected.
  A MODERATE RISK is issued when not only a greater concentration of well organized severe thunderstorms are expected but a greater magnitude in severe weather as well. Typical moderate risks include dangerous squall lines, multi-cell clusters and numerous tornado producing supercells with large hail and damaging winds. This outlook includes a 15% probability of tornadoes and 45% probability of damaging wind gusts. Depending on the size of the risk area anywhere from 25-50 reports of damaging winds, 25-50 reports of large hail and/or a minimum of 5-10 tornadoes can be expected.
  The HIGH RISK implies that a major severe weather outbreak is expected. It's only issued a few times a year and is reserved for only the most severe events that include violent tornadoes and very destructive straight-line winds. At least 20 tornadoes are expected within this risk area with a good probability of EF2's or greater or destructive derechos (winds of at least 80 mph).
  It's important to understand that these risk areas are issued concerning ORGANIZED areas of severe weather. This does not include "Pulse" thunderstorms. Pulse thunderstorms are NOT organized and develop during the heating of the day with a very weak steering mechanism aloft. Therefore, they are not able to really move anywhere and tend to fizzle out after about an hours time. This happens because with a straight north/south oriented downdraft it chokes off the updraft, weakening the storm. When a steering mechanism is present aloft both the updraft and downdraft become tilted, thus eliminating the possibility of weakening. At least weakening quickly.
  These risk areas are also issued showing the forecasters confidence levels as well. But remember just because your neighborhood lies within a risk area doesn't mean you will see severe weather. It just means that you have a greater chance of seeing it as opposed to a specific location that is not within a risk area. Anywhere within a 25 mile radius of a specific point within the risk area should expect to see a severe thunderstorm.
- Blog post
- 4 months ago
- Views: 311
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July To Mimic June?
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  What a chilly way to start the month of July! Going back through the record books today represents the coolest start in July history since records started being kept at O'Hare International. It also represents the coolest start to the month in more than 70 years according to Midway records which date back more than 100 years.
  Its all thanks to a large upper level low pressure system spinning across the eastern Great Lakes states. This has brought not only the unseasonably cool weather to the area but a lot of clouds and scattered showers as well. However, once this upper level low pulls away temperatures will NOT soar back up into the 90's like they did two weeks ago. As a matter of fact high temps in the city will only top out in the upper 70's to low 80's right through the holiday weekend. These somewhat cooler numbers could even last as long as the first two weeks of the month before we see another warmup. Sort of reminisent of the month of June.
  Why you ask? Well it has to do with the rapidly intensifying El Nino and the cooling phase of the PDO. About a month ago I wrote a blog about the possibility of no 90's in the city (O'Hare) for the entire summer. The cooling phase of the PDO (cooling of the Pacific waters) had really done a number on the ocean temperatures in the Pacific. They were well below average. It's this cooling phase that typically shifts the jetstrem farther south and allows more frequent outbreaks of chilly weather to develop across the northerntier states.
  But the El Nino has come on like gang busters as of late. El Nino, which is a completely opposite pattern (warming of the Pacific waters) was forecasted by the ENSO models to begin to develop as a counter to this PDO pattern. However, it was suppose to be a very slow process and a very weak El Nino according to the models. The Pacific waters were expected to warm about 2 to 4 degrees farenheit within a two to three month span. That means that the effects of the cooling PDO phase would of still been felt right through August when the country typically feels its hottest temperatures.
  As a result it looked like the ridges that were coming out of the desert southwest would not be strong enough to climb this far north. Meaning chilly summer weather across the Chicagoland area. Hence the thinking of no 90's this summer. Well, with the El Nino developing the way that it has over the past couple of weeks a cooler summer is still expected by the numbers. My 90's theory however looks like its not going to pan out. There are also other contributors to the pattern right now as well like the SOI but my knowledge with this is limited.
  Anyway, now it is looking like a pattern that will see swings. Sort of like a pendalum. June was very chilly to start. Actually for almost three full weeks the month saw below normal temperatures. Then that ridge came charging out of the southwest and roared through the plains and western Great Lakes states. We eclipses the 90 degree mark three consecutive days bringing the area its first official heat wave of the summer as a result. This month almost looks like a carbon copy of June. It will probably stay cool, relative to average, for the first 10 to 14 days of the month. But then it looks like another ridge will charge out of the southwest again and into the plains states and upper midwest. This will once again bring a surge of heat to the area. The exact timing and intensity is still a little up in the air right now but it looks like it will happen sometime during the end of the second week or beginning of the third week of the month.
  So as a whole the month of July may feature more days of below normal temperatures just like June did. But because of the intense ridging high temps may be so hot that when it comes time to talley up the numbers it will look like a normal month. But when you break the number of days down to below normal and above normal the below normal days will win outright this month just like they did in June.
  So here was June...
  Week #1   Below Normal
  Week #2   Below Normal
  Week #3   Normal
  Week #4   Above Normal
  
  Here's how July looks.....
  Week #1   Below Normal
  Week #2   Below Normal
  Week #3   Above Normal
  Week #4   Normal
- Blog post
- 4 months ago
- Views: 209
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Landcanes May Clobber Chicago
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  We've all heard of sugarcane, candy canes and hurricanes. But how many of you out there have actually ever heard of a landcane? Probably not to many of you. That's because the landcane is a semi rare event. But it just so happens that this could be the year where it becomes a house hold name. Especially for the folks living in the Central Plains States and Upper Midwest. This could also be the year where the city of Chicago goes up close and personal with one.
  A land-cane begins as a cluster of thunderstorms, similar to that of a hurricane. However, the landcane develops over land hence it's name. This cluster of thunderstorms develops and intensifies off of what ever source its drawing its lift and energy from. For example... there could be a vorticity max aloft (upper level disturbance between 15,000 and 20,000 ft.) or a jetstreak creating the lift that is needed. As this cluster continues to grow and develop, eventually enough latent heat is released into the atmosphere that the pressures within this cluster begin to fall. Once the pressures fall a mini circulation develops and a landcane forms.
  
  Just like a hurricane, the landcane develops banding or waves of energy. This banding then begins to wrap around the center of the circulation. As the pressures continue to fall the bands on the front end intensify. Winds have been known to exceed 100 mph! Numerous areas of rotation can develop as well producing tornadoes.
  As you can imagine, the damage produced by a landcane can be quite severe. Especially if it moves over a highly populated area. The powerful straight-line winds can shove mobile homes off of there foundations as well as push semi's completely over on there sides. Uprooted trees, blown out windows and rooftops being blown off of buildings are examples of some of the other damage that can be produced from these extremely powerful mini storm systems.
  So what does this mean for Chicago? With the pattern that is developing the city of Chicago will sit on the northern edge of southern ridges that pull east off the front range of the Rockies. Because of the developing cooling phase of the PDO and the positioning of the jestream this summer these ridges will only be allowed to move so far to the north before being bullied back south. Therefore, the city of Chicago will sit on what is known as the ring of fire or the periphery of the ridge. The flow around these ridges is clockwise. So lancanes, MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex's) and other clusters of storms that develop in the Central Plains will be forced into our neck of the woods.
  As far as the number of landcanes we'll see this summer, that's still a difficult call. Especially considering the fact that only a small amount develop each year. However, as is the case with a hurricane it only takes one to come barreling through the Chicagoland area. And with the pattern that we're starting to move into the percentages are higher than average this year. So even though severe weather has been kept to a minimum thus far things could change as we get into Summer.
  Here's another look at a landcane
- Blog post
- 5 months ago
- Views: 543
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No 90's This Summer?
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  How much of a shock would that be? As crazy as it sounds there's a good possibility that the Chicago area may not reach the 90 degree mark even once this entire summer. How unusual is that you ask? Well, considering we average anywhere from 17-19 90 degree days per summer, it's pretty unusual! By summer standards last year was well below average as well when we only eclipsed the 90 degree mark 6 times all year, 5 of those during the Summer months.
  Is it a climate change you ask? Not necessarily. It's more like a cycle and brief pattern change. Im a firm believer that everything happens in cycles and patterns. Everything from the number or hurricanes in a single season to the amount of snow to how much rain we see during the year. People are often times quick to pull the trigger on the whole global warming issue and use it as a scape-goat. Instead of taking the time to closely examine the atmosphere people just say it's global warming and they leave it at that. But this development has actually happened in the past. Actually, it's happened a couple of times. Once in the 1930's and again in the 1970's.
  This pattern change has already begun and will continue to develop during the summer. The big players in this change are the trend setters which change in cycles. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is a trend setter, the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is a trend setter, the PNA (Pacific North America) is a trend setter. All of these have huge impacts on winter weather. A negative AO for example unleashes a tremendous amount of cold air from the arctic and poures it into the lower 48 states. A negative NAO develops huge snow storms along the eastern seaboard. These are global PATTERNS that develop and dictate our weather sometimes months at a time.
  Well another trend setter that we look at for thr Spring and Summer months is the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Sort of like the La Nina, the PDO is a measure of ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. However, it's a MUCH slower, longer lasting pattern. It's a cooling phase of the Pacific waters. This cooling phase actually helps to change the weather pattern across the entire globe. Unlike the La Nina and El Nino which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last 6 to 18 months at a time, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years! This change in pattern can effect hurricane activity in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, global drought conditions and global land temperature patterns.
  What this means for you here in Chicago is.... gear up for a much cooler Summer this year. The change in the pattern that has already developed as a result of the cooling PDO is the jetstream. Instead of it running into southern and central Canada this Summer it will set up shop much farther south, running somewhere across the southern and central Great Lakes States. This jetstream seperates cool air to the north from warm and humid air to the south. So naturally if the jetstream is north of Chicago we can expect warm weather. If it's south of the city we can expect cool weather. As it oscillates during the Summer months it will drive cooler weather into the area numerous times over the next several months. Sometimes for long durations of time, possibly a week or more. Not to mention a lot of clouds with passing storms that travel along it and shifts in our winds that would allow the cooler Lake temperatures to travel inland.
  All of this spells a cool Summer. Now it may not be too far away from the normal when all is said and done. That's because there will be warm spells mixed in there as well. Notice I used the word warm and not hot. The reason I am not using the word hot is because every time we get a build up of heat close to the area the jetstream will collapse over the city putting a lid on our temperatures and preventing us from turning hot. So as far as any sustained heat or heat waves go, I just dont see it this summer.
  So to conclude.... by looking at the latest global information here is what I am forecasting this summer. Remember the numbers below are forecasted for Chicago's official site, O'Hare International Airport.
  The number of days where our temperature reaches....
      TEMP                DAYS
  1) 100+ degrees          0
  2) 95-99  degrees      0
  3) 90-94 degrees        0-2
  
  -CS
- Blog post
- 5 months ago
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Spring Review 2009
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  Spring 2009 will mainly be remembered for it's heavy rains and widespread flooding across the Chicagoland area. As a matter of fact, 2009 now officially ranks as the 7th wettest Spring ever here in the Windy City. Officially, with Summer not arriving until June 21st we will continue to add to this mark and more than likely will end up breaking the top 5 when all is said and done.
  Numerous rivers, creeks and streams have been in flood stage for a very long time now, especially across our southern suburbs. The Kankakee River at Momence and Shelby, the Illinois River at Wilmington as well as several locations along the Fox River have experienced flooding ever since the beginning of March. Today (June 4th) actually marks the first day that I can remember since then where there wasn't a single flood warnings issued for the Chicago viewing area.
  Coming off of the wettest year (2008) in Chicago history, the last thing that residents needed was more rain. Unfortunately though, the pattern just continues. The rain has even been a pest for farmers. Most of there farmlands are STILL unplantable because of all of the standing water. Once the ground becomes saturated the falling rains have no where to go. So instead of seeping into the ground the rain begins to accumulate on top of it. As of two weeks ago only 35% of there crop was planted. Normally they should have 85%-90% planted.
  By the numbers Chicago has received 14.58 inches of rain so far this Spring which ranks 7th all time. This is 4.88 inches above normal. For the year, Chicago has received 19.13 inches or rain (as of June 4th) which is 5.68 inches above normal.
  As far as temperatures are concerned, technically average high temperatures for Spring 2009 have been above normal by 0.8 degrees. But that's only because temperatures climbed up into the 80's from May 19th - 23rd (exception was the 22nd where the high was only 69). This brief warm up averaged 15-20 degrees above normal at that time. If you take this little slot of days out of the equation our high temperatures fall below average by quite a bit. The overall average temperature for Chicago (high temps and low temps) are running 1 degree above normal at 48.9 degrees.
- Blog post
- 5 months ago
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Severe Weather To Increase
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  THURSDAY MAY 28th, 2009
  As we get closer to June the jetstream continues to push farther to the north across the northerntier states. It's usually at this point during the year when the Chicago area stands to see its greatest chances of severe weather. So far this year we've been fortunate. There have only been a handful of times where severe weather has even occurred. Believe it or not, a couple of them were actually during the winter months of December and January. So for the most part Spring 2009 had been very quiet. But this could all change rather quickly as we march along into June, July and August.
  Now typically its the Spring months of April, May and the first half of June when we get blasted. But this year the set up is a little bit different and it's that slight difference that could make this a very interesting summer around these parts.
  Before I explain the pattern let me first take a quick second to explain how severe weather works and the factors that must come together to produce it. Those factors are moisture, heat and instability. If any one of these are lacking it becomes very difficult for severe weather to develop. That's why April, May and June are the three biggest severe weather month. The atmosphere is in transition during this time. Acrtic air that once had a strong hold on the lower 48 begins to clash with the building warmth from the strengthening rays of the sun. This collision coupled with a roaring jetstream aloft produces just the right combination of instability to trigger severe weather.
  So why are we becoming increasing concerned now? After a completely quiet Spring, what possibly makes me think that the summer will be active? The answer is simple. This isn't your typical Summer set up. The jetstream which creates instability and enhances thunderstorm development will not be running through southern Canada this Summer. It will be running through the central Great Lakes States just to the north of the Chicago area. The proximity will be close enough to keep us on alert at least through July and possibly into August.
  Summertime thunderstorms are typically driven by the hot Summer sun. This is due to heating. The sun heats the ground which in turn heats the air immediately above it due to a process called conduction. That air then rises until it reaches a point in the atmosphere where it condenses into thunderstorm clouds. But once the sun sets that heating source is lost, therefore, thunderstorm activity diminishes. But when the jetstream is present aloft, that heating source becomes less important and thunderstorms continue into the overnight. The reason why is because the jet is also an energy source which forces air to rise (or at the very least aides in the process). Basically the heat from the Summer sun develops the thunderstorms. Once the sun sets it sort of hands it's energy off to the jetstream which then keeps the storms going through the overnight when the sun can no longer do it.
  This kind of a pattern also tends to trigger numerous MCS's ... Mesoscale Convective Systems. These are very small mini low pressure systems that develop from a single cluster of thunderstorms. They quickly grow into large, powerful wind storms that travel hundreds of miles during the overnight hours when most of us are sound asleep. They become particualry dangerous because winds within these storms can reach 100 mph.
  So even though the severe weather season across the country is nearing an end, we're not in the clear just yet. As a matter of fact things have more than likely only just begun.
  Look for continuous coverage on our website should severe weather develop. You can get the very latest information from our weather team as well as Live Power Doppler and live webcam chats.
- Blog post
- 6 months ago
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Big Storms Friday Night
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  LAST NIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER
  Well it looks like the weather is finally starting to get a little more active around here now that we're moving along through the month of May. Heavy showers and thunderstorms roared through the Chicago area last night producing tremendous amounts of rain (in a short period of time) and damaging winds.
  Numerous wind damage reports came in to Fox Chicago News including a roof being blown off of a business in Dyer (Lake County Indiana) and wires and trees being blown down in Gary (47th and Pierre). There were also several reports of large hail throughout the area including quarter size in Lake Zurich and three quarter inch in Crystal Lake.
  Also rather impressive was the heavy rains that fell across the area. More than three inches of rain fell in most of Will and Kankakee Counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana. This is the same exact areas that still have swollen creeks, streams and rivers. Several flood warnings are still in effect for the Kankakee and Vermillion rivers.
  
  FRIDAY NIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER
  Something very similar to that of last night could actually take place again Friday Night as another rather intense storm system marches through the area. Severe weather parameters are high once again, especially in the southern portions of our viewing area (Will, Kankakee, Grundy and LaSalle Counties). I will talk more about the severe weather parameters in the detailed technical weather discussion below. A cold front will approach the area tomorrow evening. Along with it showers and thunderstorms will develop in a line stretching from northeast to southwest. The big question with this will be just like Wednesday....how much sunshine will we see, if any, during the day. The more sun, the more unstable the atmosphere will become.
  It appears like showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the line and could move into the area as early as mid afternoon. As of right now the upper level support for this system does't look as strong as it did yesterday. Nonetheless, some of these storms could produce strong damaging winds, heavy rains and hail. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out, however, i think this will be more of a straight-line wind event. As the line moves through during the late evening hours heavy rains will once again develop. Areas that just saw 3 to 4 inches of rain could actually be targeted with more heavy rains from this system. This obviously would only aggravate the flooding situation. This will also continue to put a damper on crop fields that should of been planted a month ago but can not because of the flooded farm lands.
  High pressure moves in for the weekend and sets up a nice stretch of weather for the Chicago area. Sunshine returns for both Saturday and Sunday but temperatures will remain on the chilly side. Highs on Sunday may only top out in the low 60's. We should normally be at 70 degrees for this time of the year.
  
  TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
  Once again the severe weather parameters are rather high for portions of our viewing area. But a lot will depend on how far north the warm front travels and how much sunshine we'll see during the afternoon. The warm sector is key. Since the mid and upper levels will not be as unstable this time around as what we saw Wednesday Night a lot will depend on how unstable the surface becomes. For that we need the warm front to bust through the area and sunshine. It's like adding paper to the fire in your fireplace. It makes it hot and sets the stage! Same thing here.
  Some of the forecast models are suggesting a good deal of surface instability. Our RPM model here at Fox shows an intense line that moves into the western portions of Illinois and then redevelops over the sothern portions of our viewing area. It suggests that the same areas that got blasted Wednesday Night could get blasted once again Friday Night. Below is a look at some of the severe parameters for Friday evening and how I rank them on my insability scale.
  INSTABILITY SCALE
  Low Unstable (Chance of storms)
  Moderate Unstable    (Some storms could be severe)
  Very Unstable   (Severe Weather Likely)
  Extremely Unstable   (Tornadoes)
  Chicago O'Hare (Low Unstable)
  Lifted Index ..... -2.0
  Showalter Index ..... -1.6
  Cape ...... 216 j/kg
  Sweat Index 380
  
  Joliet (Moderate Unstable)
  Lifted Index ..... -2.5
  Showalter Index ...... -1.4
  Cape ...... 524 j/kg
  Sweat Index .... 384
  
  Kankakee     (Moderate Unstable)
  Lifted Index .... -3.1
  Showalter Index.... -1.3
  Cape ...... 839 j/kg
  Sweat Index ..... 393
  
  DeKalb      (Moderate Unstable)
  Lifted Index ... -2.7
  Showalter Index .... -1.9
  Cape .... 108 j/kg
  Sweat Index ... 370
  
  Aurora (Moderate Unstable)
  Lifted Index .... -2.6
  Showalter Index .... -1.7
  Cape ... 247 j/kg
  Sweat Index .... 371
  
  Waukegan (Low Unstable)
  Lifted Index ... -1.7
  Showalter Index ... -1.9
  Cape ... 98 j/kg
  Sweat Index ... 364
  
  So it is looking like a large portion of the viewing area runs the risk of seeing severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening. We will be LIVE in the chatroom thorughout most of the evening keeping you informed.
  
  -CS
- Blog post
- 6 months ago
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Severe Weather Wednesday
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
  A powerful frontal system will be marching through the area Wednesday afternoon. Along with it comes our first real chance of widespread severe weather. Some of the severe weather parameters that I look at are well within severe range and pushing tornado range. I will be discussing this further in the technical discussion below.
  The warm front pushes through the area overnight tonight. Along with it comes a small band of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these could be strong but nothing severe. I expect this activity to develop during the late night hours (3:00am - 8:00am). Clouds will then linger for a brief time Wednesday morning but some sunshine is expected during the afternoon. This is where things could get pretty interesting around here. The air behind this warm front is warm and soupy (humid) and the mid May sun will be just the fuel needed to actively destabilize the atmosphere. As the cold front approaches later in the day showers and thunderstorms will redevelop. With a vigorous jetstream running aloft these storms will tap into some upper level energy. That energy will be transported down to the surface and strong gusty straight line winds as well as isolated super cells will develop. In particular it will be the super cells that we will have to watch. They are the ones that rotate. They are also the ones that will have the greatest chances of turning tornadic. This should be mainly confined to Interstate 80 and points south.
  The Storm Prediction Center does have the entire area outlined within the SLIGHT RISK. There has also been a Moderate Risk issued down state. This would be the area where most of the severe weather as well as damage is expected. I would expect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued sometime tomorrow afternoon.
  Once the front pulls through and we lose the daytime heating thunderstorms will begin to diminish in number and intensity.
  TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
  Looking at the latest runs of the GFS and the WRF (forecast models) some of the severe weather parameters that I look at are pretty high for tomorrow. Now before I show them, I want to point out that in no way does this reflect that we will see severe weather tomorrow. It simply means that the atmosphere will be ripe enough and if thunderstorms do develop they will have a good chance of becoming severe.
  We will start things out with what I look at to determine whether or not thunderstorms will even develop. Without getting to crazy and explaining instability/buoyancy and patterns and everything I'll just list the Index's that I look at. They are the SWEAT Index, the SHOWALTER Index and the LIFTED Index. All three of these are just about as high as I've seen so far this year for Chicago (O'Hare). At least all of them at the same time that is. Basically, all of these Index's indicate how unstable or stable certain levels of the atmosphere will be and how far a parcel of air will travel within that unstable air mass.
  The Lifted Index is a general look at the stability of the atmosphere. It becomes unstable at 0 and below (negative numbers). So if 0 is that number where the atmosphere begins to turn unstable and -8 or -9 would be extremely unstable we would be in the LOW unstable range at -2.5. The Showalter Index is similar to that of the Lifted Index except it takes different portions of the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere. Generally a number of 1 or lower (negative numbers) is unstable. A number of -5 to -7 would be extremely unstable. The Showalter Index for tomorrow is in that moderately unstable range of -2 to -2.5. Last but certainly not least would be the Sweat Index. When this index reaches 200 thunderstorms are possible. When this index reaches 320 or higher severe weather is possible and when this index reaches 400 or higher tornadoes are possible. The Sweat Index for tomorrow evening is 402.
  Lifted Index -2.5 LOW Unstable
  Showalter Index -2.5 MODERATELY Unstable
  Sweat Index 402 Tornado Range
  The EHI Index (Energy Helicity Index) which is alos a tornado index is also very high for tomorrow afternoon. However, it is low in the city. It becomes high when we get out towards Will, Kankakee and Grundy counties. I think this is the same exact area that will take the brunt of the severe weather tomorrow as well.
- Blog post
- 6 months ago
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5-8-09 Update
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  Early morning clouds have given way to sunshine now across the Chicago area as a very powerful Derecho moves into Kentucky (Go to national headlines for an update on the Derecho).
  This storm has left a boundary layer behind that could ignite if enough heating is produced later this afternoon. As of right now (2:15pm) Live Power Doppler is in the clear but we will continue to have to keep an eye to the sky. The SPC Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather across eastern Iowa and the northwestern portions of the state of Illinois. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has also been issued for that same area. Even though severe weather has erupted earlier this morning down state and is expected to erupt west of here this afternoon, no severe weather is anticipated in the Chicago area.
  Our RPM model shows a few hit or miss showers and thunderstorms developing along the leftover boundary later this evening (5:00 - 6:00pm). The development appears mainly north of interstate 80 and is primarily west of the city. A second round of activity is expected later tonight (11:00pm - Midnight) with an approaching front. This to will bring showers and thunderstorms. Not everyone will see them and just like the round that will move through this evening, this will not be severe. Just keep an umbrella handy if you have those outdoor plans and keep an eye to the sky.
  Mothers Day weekend looks cooler but much nicer at this point with temperatues in the low 60's and a combination of sun and clouds.
  -CS
- Blog post
- 6 months ago
- Views: 202
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5-7-09 Update
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  Temperatures have warmed up considerably this afternoon out ahead of an advancing disturbance approaching from the west. As was the case yesterday, we're seeing showers and thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of this disturbance. A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for southern Iowa and northern Missouri this afternoon. Along with this watch, the SPC has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather across the central potions of the state of Illinois and Indiana. But as far as we're concerned here in Chicago we're looking at mainly just scattered showers and storms. There could be a couple of strong ones across Will and Kankakee Counties later this evening but most of the area should steer clear from severe weather.
  As far as timing is concerned the western portions of our viewing area are already starting to get hit as of this writing (2:30pm). This cluster will continue to advance to the east southeast over the next few hours. Yesterday most of the activity developed from Chicago points north. Today, most of the activity will be from the city points south. Some of these storms will once again be accompanied by heavy downpours and numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes.
  There is also a chance that some of this activity lingers into the first part of the overnight. Although, at this time I think its pretty safe to say that most of the area should steer clear by midnight latest.
  Remember you can always get an up to the minute update from Live Power Doppler on our weather page as well as your local forecast and live chat.
  -CS
- Blog post
- 6 months ago
- Views: 134
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5-6-09 Update
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the next couple of hours throughout the Chicago area. Nothing severe is expected, however, some of the storms could produce a quick downpour and small hail. Once the sun sets and the heating of the day is lost most of this activity will begin to diminish. The majority of this will likely stay north of Interstate 80. At least as far as the thunderstorms go. Showers should move into northwest Indiana later this evening, after 6:00pm.
  Thursday looks like another very nice day across the area with mixed skies, clouds and sun and temperatures in the low 70's. There could be an isolated thunderstorm far south across Will and Kankakee counties during the afternoon.
  We'll have a complete weather update for you tonight on Fox Chicago News at 9:00pm. In the meantime you can continue to get up to the minute updates with Live Power Doppler on our website and forecast updates in our blog section. Just click on the weather tab.
  
  -CS
- Blog post
- 6 months ago
- Views: 126
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Evening Thunderstorms
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  A cold front continues to slowly approach the area from the northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop out ahead of it throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Some of the storms will produce heavy downpours, gusty winds and maybe even pea size hail.
  
  Most of the severe weather from this system is expected to remain east of the Chicago area, although severe weather can not be completely ruled out here either. At this time there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that has been posted for La Porte County in northwest Indiana and most of southern Michigan until 10:00pm EDT (9:00pm CDT) this evening.
  
  The main concern with this system across the Chicago area overnight will be the heavy downpours. Dewpoints are starting to creep up into the 60's now so the moisture content in the atmosphere continues to rise. Once the front moves through the area it will act as a trigger, a spark that will allow thunderstorms to continue to increase in number. This front (trigger) will then stall just south of the city (interstate 80 corridor). This will allow thunderstorms to start to run over the same locations.... a process that will call training. That means that heavy rains may hit the same areas over and over again during the late night hours. Not everyone will see the heavy rains, but those of us that do can expect a good inch to an inch and a half. Widespread flooding is not expected but areas along the Kankakee and Illinois Rivers will have to be monitored closely. Heavier rains are expected to fall across the northwestern portions of the state from De Kalb and Rockford westward into the state of Iowa.
  
  A big temperature drop is expected overnight tonight as well. Portions of northwest Indiana are in the 80's at this time while Lake County in Illinois is in the 40's! Look for temperatures to drop down into the 50's and 60's overnight.
  
  BOTTOM LINE ON ALL OF THIS..... scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, one or two of them may turn severe with gusty winds. Heavy rains possible for portions of the area overnight tonight.
- Blog post
- 7 months ago
- Views: 225
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Warmer Than Florida This Weeke
- From: Chris_Sowers
- Description:
  
  That's right my friends much of the viewing area could be warmer than the state of Florida this weekend! Even Miami and Ft Lauderdale! Temperatures are expected to climb well up into the 80's by Friday as a strong ridge sets up along the Carolina coastline. It looks very similar to that of a "Bermuda High" which generally develops during the dog days of summer.
  
  The clockwise circulation around this high (ridge) will shift our winds out of the southwest. This will allow us to temporarily tap into a little desert heat coming out of the four corners states. High temperatures on Friday could climb up to 84 degrees in the city of Chicago with mid to upper 80's possible south and west. The record high for the day (at O'Hare) is 87 degrees. We could come close and although we may see a full day of sunshine I dont expect to break the record. But 84 degrees is nothing to complain about that's for sure! This would be the warmest we've been since October of last year. That's more than six months ago!
  
  Saturday looks a little cooler with high temperatures backing off slightly into the lower 80's. This will still be more than 20 degrees above normal though! Here's a little tid bit for you....temperatures on both Friday and Saturday will be warmer here than in Honolulu, Key West, Miami, Dallas and Las Vegas!
  
  ENJOY !!
  
  Here's Your Fox Forecast.....
  
  Wednesday.....Sunny   High: 58
  
  Thursday...... Sunny     High: 72
  
  Friday.... Sunny           High: 84
  
  Saturday... Sunny       High: 82
- Blog post
- 7 months ago
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