Im beginning to receive a lot of emails about the unusually cool summer and its possible effects on this upcoming winter. So because of this im going to put out a PRE winter outlook for 2009-2010. This will be a blog that discusses the possible large scale patterns that will drive our weather from December - March. This is by no means etched in stone at this point and will be looked at again come October when the complete outlook is finished.
Let me first start out by saying that what's going on right now in no way shape of form has anything to do with what will happen this upcoming winter. It will have no effect what so ever. I know it's easy to assume that because its chilly out there right now, relative to average, that we're going to experiece a cold winter. But that wont be the case this year.
The pattern that has kept us chilly this summer is an Atlantic block that is teleconnected by a larger global scale pattern across the Gulf of Alaska (Positive PNA/ Negative NAO). The weather this winter will be influenced by one of two seperate phenomenon that has no similarities to the current pattern. Those two phenomenon are the developing El Nino and the Arctic Oscillation. One is a warming pattern (El Nino) and the other is a cooling pattern (Arctic Oscillation). The big question at this point is which one will have greater implications on our weather. Right now this is a very difficult question to answer because of the conflicting signals that we're getting from current observations and forecast guidence.
THE DEVELOPING EL NINO
Lets first start out with the developing El Nino. The El Nino is a sudden warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific waters. Or the waters just off the coast of Central and South America. This sudden warming has large effects on our atmosphere including momentum, temperature and winds. The jetstream, which seperates the warm and cold air, becomes displaced and splits into two with the subtropical barrelling into central California. It then slides east across the deep south and then up the eastern seaboard bringing heavy rains to both California and the dixie south. This pattern tends to bring mild and dry conditions to Chicago as milder Pacific air is forced eastward through the Upper Midwest.
However, heres where things get a little tricky. The El Nino that has developed is a weak one. On a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being unusally strong, it's only a 1 and is only forecasted to be a 1 because there's nothing driving it. It's not a true El Nino. Its a reaction to the cooling phase of the PDO. Therefore future strengthening into the moderate to high scale isn't likely because the warm waters aren't deep enough. The pattern that I just discussed in the above paragraph is a direct result from an El Nino. So the weaker the El Nino the weaker the influence of this pattern will be. The stronger the El Nino the stronger the pattern. So in a weak El Nino very modest effects are experienced.
Current observations as well as forecast guidence show conflicting signals as to the duration of this event. There are already pressure signs in the SOI and current SST anomalies across the western equitorial Pacific that show the El Nino possibly weakening by December. So what was already looking like only a modest El Nino to begin with looks even less impressive now. But again, its early and things can change.
I do want to point out that the rate at which this El Nino came on was much faster than what any forecast model showed. So we will have to continue to watch it.
THE NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
What im becoming increasing more concerned about is the AO (Arctic Oscillation). In its negaitve phase high pressure develops over the pole. The air around this high sinks, flows clockwise and spreads outward. At the same time the pressures fall at 45 degrees north. By nature, air wants to naturally flow from high to low pressure. So what happens is the true arctic air from Scandinavia and Siberia is forced to cross the pole and spill into northern Canada. It then seeks out lowering pressure fields which develop in the central and southern part of the country. At that point the jetstream buckles, the air becomes to dense and it spills into the lower 48 states.
This is a cold pattern that can last for weeks, even months if strong enough. The entire month of January last year fell victim to the negative AO and we all certainly remember what that was like! This, when combined with the negative NAO (block) which is contolling our weather right now can make for a brutal combination of cold and snow for areas east of the Mississippi River. But in terms of snowfall for the city of Chicago it tends to be less than normal, just like the El Nino, because the jetstream is farther south.
The biggest difference here is the El Nino's effects start at the surface and are then translated into the atmosphere. The Arctic Oscillations effects are just the opposite and develop in the lower levels of the stratosphere and upper troposhere. They are then translated down to the surface. So we look at pressures and stratospheric warming for the AO to go negative. Therefore, this is much easier to notice than the developing strength of the El Nino.
At this time, the influences of the negaitve AO are looking more likely to have a greater impact on our weather than the El Nino. But again its very early in the game right now.
SUMMARY
I think the only thing that I can say with complete confidence, at this time, is that the winter of '09-'10 looks to be a winter with less snowfall. The past two winters have seen snowfall totals in the 55 to 65 inch range. Our normal snowfall for a winter is only 30 inches. We should stay under that mark this winter. As far as the temperatures are concerned its still to early to make a call. We have to wait and see what the El Nino wants to do and what the pressures over the pole want to do. But if I were a betting man, which by the way ill be in Atlantic City this week! lol I would say that they would be colder than normal.
The Fox Chicago weather team will come out with there winter outlook sometime in late September or early October. But this is what's on the table at this point and hopefully will shed some light as to what could happen this winter.
-CS
How much of a shock would that be? As crazy as it sounds there's a good possibility that the Chicago area may not reach the 90 degree mark even once this entire summer. How unusual is that you ask? Well, considering we average anywhere from 17-19 90 degree days per summer, it's pretty unusual! By summer standards last year was well below average as well when we only eclipsed the 90 degree mark 6 times all year, 5 of those during the Summer months.
Is it a climate change you ask? Not necessarily. It's more like a cycle and brief pattern change. Im a firm believer that everything happens in cycles and patterns. Everything from the number or hurricanes in a single season to the amount of snow to how much rain we see during the year. People are often times quick to pull the trigger on the whole global warming issue and use it as a scape-goat. Instead of taking the time to closely examine the atmosphere people just say it's global warming and they leave it at that. But this development has actually happened in the past. Actually, it's happened a couple of times. Once in the 1930's and again in the 1970's.
This pattern change has already begun and will continue to develop during the summer. The big players in this change are the trend setters which change in cycles. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is a trend setter, the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is a trend setter, the PNA (Pacific North America) is a trend setter. All of these have huge impacts on winter weather. A negative AO for example unleashes a tremendous amount of cold air from the arctic and poures it into the lower 48 states. A negative NAO develops huge snow storms along the eastern seaboard. These are global PATTERNS that develop and dictate our weather sometimes months at a time.
Well another trend setter that we look at for thr Spring and Summer months is the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Sort of like the La Nina, the PDO is a measure of ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. However, it's a MUCH slower, longer lasting pattern. It's a cooling phase of the Pacific waters. This cooling phase actually helps to change the weather pattern across the entire globe. Unlike the La Nina and El Nino which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last 6 to 18 months at a time, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years! This change in pattern can effect hurricane activity in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, global drought conditions and global land temperature patterns.

What this means for you here in Chicago is.... gear up for a much cooler Summer this year. The change in the pattern that has already developed as a result of the cooling PDO is the jetstream. Instead of it running into southern and central Canada this Summer it will set up shop much farther south, running somewhere across the southern and central Great Lakes States. This jetstream seperates cool air to the north from warm and humid air to the south. So naturally if the jetstream is north of Chicago we can expect warm weather. If it's south of the city we can expect cool weather. As it oscillates during the Summer months it will drive cooler weather into the area numerous times over the next several months. Sometimes for long durations of time, possibly a week or more. Not to mention a lot of clouds with passing storms that travel along it and shifts in our winds that would allow the cooler Lake temperatures to travel inland.
All of this spells a cool Summer. Now it may not be too far away from the normal when all is said and done. That's because there will be warm spells mixed in there as well. Notice I used the word warm and not hot. The reason I am not using the word hot is because every time we get a build up of heat close to the area the jetstream will collapse over the city putting a lid on our temperatures and preventing us from turning hot. So as far as any sustained heat or heat waves go, I just dont see it this summer.
So to conclude.... by looking at the latest global information here is what I am forecasting this summer. Remember the numbers below are forecasted for Chicago's official site, O'Hare International Airport.
The number of days where our temperature reaches....
TEMP DAYS
1) 100+ degrees 0
2) 95-99 degrees 0
3) 90-94 degrees 0-2
-CS
I was really disappointed when Tamron Hall left the morning show here on Fox. I just love how she handled herself in every way. She can be silly and funny but also professional and serious. I like the way she delivers the news and not show too much of her personal view when she don't agree or approve of a topic. I tried to like the new girl, Jan, but I just can't like her as much. There's something about how she delivers the news. She shows so much more of her personal feelings (facial expressions) towards an issue being covered. Although I think it is fine for news anchors to show emotions, Jan just gets more judgmental than anyone I've seen on a non-cable network, in my opinion. I also love Nancy Loo, Patrick Elwood and Tera Williams (she is so pretty). They all look so genuinely nice people. Oh, I miss Tammy Souza, too! Mike Bartz is also cool and funny, although I think he's a little stuck up... lol. Anyway, Fox is my favorite network out of all the local channels.
“The honest-to-goodness truth of the matter is that everybody does die,” says Arvin Starrett, a spokesman for the National Funeral Directors Association and the owner of Starrett Funeral Home in Paris, TX in a 4/18/09 N.Y. Times article.
And, let's face facts...as invincible as we may at times feel, and in an economic and political environment that changes with the wind, it is the one honest-to-goodness truth we all can believe. That is why funeral homes, crematories and cemeteries...otherwise known as the "death industry", is booming when the global and domestic economy around them is crumbling. I recently read that by most accounts, the real estimated average cost of a traditional funeral is over $8,000. $8,000!!! In a financial climate of 46 states reporting over-the-month unemployment rate increases and the jobless rate in all 50 states and the District of Columbia posting increases! (March 09, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) How can that be? How can consumers continue to lose their jobs and their security...and when the final event of devastation occurs...the loss of a loved one...the death industry ruffles its feathers and zeroes in like a vulture to pick the remains of the fresh corpse and their families. It's just not right...but unfortunately...it is one of the other truths that we are forced to live with.
According to senior industry analyst Toon van Beeck, of research firm IBIS World, the revenue of the U.S. funeral industry will grow by 1.2% this year to a $20.7 billion dollar industry, which, in all fairness, is down from a 2% revenue gain last year. My heart breaks for their loss.
The annual death rate of 2.5 million Americans a year is expected to increase by about 1% per year, and expected to spike by early 2020 as baby boomers reach their mid 70's. Rest assured...this is just the famine before the feast for the death industry, as their mouths water in anticipation of the aging baby boomers dying off...and perhaps the push to sell pre-need contracts. While they have to accept their measly 1.2% growth during a period of the U.S. experiencing a decrease in 2008 annual GDP of 6.3% (March 09, U.S. Bureau of Economical Analysis), they have derived clever new ways to push their growth numbers back up, particularly in light of the growing interest in "green" burials and cremation, which analysts expect to account for 38% of deaths this year. Let's see what they're up to...
The Video Tribute: This is the newest innovation from enterprising entrepreneurs and funeral homes. The services range from creating a video tribute to the departed using photographs and other memorials to live web-casting or recording the funeral as it takes place. Funeral homes offer this service to the families for hundreds of dollars. That big hearted gesture just brought tears to my eyes...until they turned to tears of anger as I realized that the necessary "capital expenditures" of the funeral home was a laptop and an internet connection. Virtually all laptops today are designed with web cam capabilities and you just need the knowledge of how to stream it (many free on-line tutorials, it really is not difficult). If the laptop does not have this feature, a web cam can be purchased, ranging from $10 to $50. Even newer Netbooks, the smaller, more compact versions of laptops, have web cam capabilities. Once again, thank you compassionate funeral homes, for taking the emotional and financial situations of the bereaved into consideration when designing your promotional offers.
Casket Rental: As the cremation percentage rises, funeral homes are feeling the pressure on the typically highest priced, and highest mark-up item...the casket. So, they are generously offering those who opt for cremation but would like a viewing to rent a casket. I recently saw one funeral home that offered a "discounted" rental fee of $1,000 for a "beautiful and ornate" casket rental. What they fail to mention is that they purchased that casket at wholesale, up to 800% below what they would sell it to you for, and after only a few, if that, rentals, the casket has paid for itself but they continue to rent it for years at the same rate. Does the phrase "cash cow" come to mind.
Others are offering grief counseling referrals, with a kickback from the referral source, and what is referred to as "thumbies"...14k gold earrings, rings, pendants or other jewelry that is made from the thumbprint of the deceased. To each his own, but you certainly do not need to pay a funeral director a fee above what the jewelry cost to be made...there are literally hundreds of vendors who provide this service without the "commission" being paid to the funeral home to Google a jewelry maker and give you a referral.
Another way that families are saving money and personalizing funerals is to have the viewing and funeral services take place in their homes or other places, sometimes with the aid of a funeral director and others that do not. That is a whole different subject and one I will cover in my next entry...wait and see!
In summary, the death industry is basically immune from the economy, or any other factor, because they have a very specific and select prospect list...everybody who is alive today! Beware of special promotional offers and be smart when selecting the types of funeral and burial goods and services. There are innumerable ways to save money through a comprehensive and documented pre-need funeral plan, you just have to take the first step.
Please learn more at www.FuneralPlannersInc.com. Everyday, we help consumers understand their rights and help them protect themselves and their families, while saving money in the process...Guaranteed. An informed consumer is a prepared consumer, an we can help.
I really enjoyed Mike Barz. It sounds like he made a big mistake, but I wonder if firing him was the right choice. He was great as a morning anchor. Unless they replaceh him with Patrick Elwood, I am pretty much thru with Good Day Chicago. I miss Tammy too! Jan really complimented Mike and I just am not feeling it with David ....
Hats off to the Hoosier State!
For a state plagued in recent years with headline worthy pre-need funeral contract fraud and deception, the state's representatives have finally chosen to represent and take action to protect the consumers in Indiana with tougher legislation targeting the highly sensitive and emotional exploitation funeral and death industry consumer fraud.
Believe me...it was sorely needed and overdue. Better late than never, but let's take a peak at the corruption and destruction leading up to this...
Most recently, in Dec 2008, Eunice Roper-Allen of the Allen Funeral Home in East Chicago pleaded not guilty to the indictment of concealing assets in her bankruptcy filing...along with mail fraud for defrauding a funeral home client of $44,000. Ms. Roper-Allen in confidence advised this client to deposit $84,000 into an Allen Funeral Home controlled account to circumvent probate proceedings. Subsequently, she returned $40,000 to the client, along with $44,000 worth of falsified checks and duped receipts for funeral expenses. Oh, not to mention the $470,000 in unpaid property taxes owed by the funeral home dating back to 1999. You see, in 1992, Ms. Roper-Allen transferred to funeral home and property to the Small Business Administration, who within months sold the funeral home and property to a relative for $1...yes...that is one dollar. A short 5 months later, the relative filed for bankruptcy protection, including the funeral home and property, and although the bankruptcy was dismissed within the same year it was filed, the property continued to be protected from property taxes under the bankruptcy filing.
The property tax "issue" came to light under the mail (funeral) fraud indictment when it was learned that the property was still deeded to the relative...except that the relative has been dead since 1997. It didn't hurt that Ms. Roper-Allen is the former President of the East Chicago NAACP and has close allies and relatives in the Lake County government, who knowingly removed the property from one of the biggest tax sales in Lake County in the Fall of 2007.
Since Indiana is about on par with Illinois for political malpractice, I wonder if that relative voted as well...hmmm...okay, moving on...
Earlier in 2008, the Memory Gardens scandal hit. Robert Nelms and his wife Debora Johnson-Nelms owned Memory Gardens Management Corp., which owned and operated funeral homes and cemeteries in 4 states (IN, MI, NJ & TN). They are charged with raping the perpetual care funds, which is mandated by law to be placed into a trust for ongoing and future ground maintenance and other expenses. I guess Mr. Nelms believe that "other" expenses included a $1.2M home and paying off $13M in personal loans.
While the scheme could be as large as $200M across the 4 states, the Indiana portion is approximately $47M. Fraudulent securities instruments and forged documents were used to transfer the funds to personal accounts. The couple has 5 felony counts each of theft, 1 count of fraudulent or deceitful acts, 2 counts of violation of a cemetery perpetual care fund, as well as other misdemeanor charges. Another "gentleman", business partner Clayton Smart, is also charged in relation to transfers involving 3 cemeteries and funeral homes, as is their Smith Barney broker, who it is alleged encouraged them to find a trustee who would permit these types of improper transactions. That broker, Mark Singer, was charged in 2007 with theft, conspiracy and money laundering in a similar cemetery scheme in TN. The company you keep apparently speaks volumes...
Oops...almost forgot...Memory Gardens and subsidiaries still has active job postings for insurance agents to sell pre-need funeral contracts on Monster.com and CareerBuilder.com, and is still listed on www.local.botw.org/Indiana. I assumed "botw" must stand for best of the worst, but it actually stands for best of the web.
A few years prior, Kent Kellogg of the Kellogg Funeral Home received a 16 year prison sentence for 4 guilty pleas to insurance fraud. Dating back as far as 2002, Mr. Kellogg didn't use clever securities transactions or complex trading schemes for his fraud...he simply falsified death certificates and cashed out life insurance policies entrusted to his funeral home on people who were still living.
Here's the best (worst) part...this is his quote during his trial to justify his actions, "I didn't try to deceive anyone out of their money, I was just trying to maintain my business. I've lost everything. It is my fault, I'm not trying to blame anyone else, but I've been through a lot". Yes, that is his actual quote as he knowingly and intentionally filed false death certificates, he "didn't try to deceive anyone out of their money" and he apparently believes that we all should feel forgiveness and leniency because he's "been through a lot". What about those folks who are still alive but have no life insurance...you know, the life insurance they bought and paid for...I think that they're the ones who've been put through the wringer, and at no fault of their own.
Here's an even more simple plan...in Morocco, IN, H. Robert Long of the Long Funeral Home was charged with 13 felony counts of insurance fraud after he just simply chose not to deposit funds intended for life insurance policies by trusting consumers with the insurance company. A few got a bit suspicious when they never received a policy and the insurance company had never heard of them.
In 2008, Grandview Memorial Gardens Cemetery in Madison, IN settled a class action case for missing pre-need funeral and cemetery funds placed into their care...once again, by trusting consumers. The $4M settlement will be paid by 4 banks involved and 3 cemetery and/or funeral home affiliates. The settlement was based on what the account value should have been based on the funds paid in by consumers and what the value actually was...$100,000. Not that Grandview entered into this willingly...you see an "intentional fire" per investigators was set in the office. After fire fighters put the blaze out, they found all of the client file drawers had been pulled out of the cabinets, assumably for an easier burn.
I suppose the fact that several bodies had to be exhumed in 2007 due to mass cemetery flooding caused by an improper drainage system likely didn't help the case.
Now...my favorite...in a very sad and emotionally disturbing way...
In 2007, Union City, IN elected town councilman and funeral director, Russell Reichard, of Reichard Funeral Home, pleaded guilty to fraud. He forged two signatures on a life insurance policy to make the funeral home, rather than the 2 sons of the policy holder, beneficiary. Here is the interesting part...
As an elected official, Mr. Reichard obviously has many connections. The court received 22 letters from people in Randolph County and neighboring Drake County, OH speaking highly of his integrity and requesting leniency. Most impressive is the fact that the daughter of the deceased, defrauded woman actually spoke in court in Mr. Reichard's defense, quoting "Russell is a good guy". This man just forged her mother's signature on her life insurance, after she died, to steal the inheritance from her two brothers...and she tells the court that he is a good guy...the fact that her two brothers were beneficiaries and she was not listed could indicate her motivation...
"I cut a corner and got in a hurry to do something and I apologize for what I did"...that was Mr. Reichard's defense. "Cut a corner and got in a hurry to do something"???...This translates to me as he got in a hurry to commit fraud and apologizes for getting caught.
FINALLY...some sanity!!!
Cheers to IN State Representative Dave Cheatham (D-North Vernon), co-author of HB1287, a bill that provides further clarification and refinement of the state funeral trust rules that he pushed through the IN General Assembly in 2008 in a direct response to the Grandview scandal.
Violations of perpetual care trust funds can be punishable as a class C felony and allows for two more important changes:
1) It changes the statute of limitations for pursuing a fraud claim to 5-years from withdrawal of pre-need funeral contact funds from the original language of 5-years from initial investment. This is critical, because most people realize the fraud when they make claim to the funds they have paid, which very well may be later than 5-years; and
2) It specifies that any property used to commit the crime be seized to recover damages. For instance, if the funeral director drove to work, the vehicle could be seized to recover damages. It allows for a broader range of assets which can potentially be included to compensate those defrauded.
On March 26, 2009, HB1287 passed the state Senate and goes back to the state House to consider any changes recommended by the state Senate, then proceeds to the Governor for final action. Cross your fingers that "My Man Mitch" (Gov. Mitch Daniels) does the right thing and signs this legislation into law.
Until then...I will continue to encourage all consumers to protect themselves from a very avoidable and financially devastating fraud which occurs everyday. Learn more at www.FuneralPlannersInc.com...we can and do help.
copyright 2009 Funeral Planners Inc.
When is Illinois going to allow us the right to bear arms? 2 amendment I thought was written in the constitution by our forefathers.
A couple of facts to consider when dicussing the matter:
1. Crime in other states is lower with conceal carry.
2.Criminals carry guns to use in acts of crime! "ask to see their FOID card oh they don't have one. Why is it that government protects these criminals and allow them to be the only one to carry guns. To use against us the non-gun carriers?
3.A criminal will think twice about car Jacking you, Raping you, Robbing you, Home invading you, Mobbing you, Stealing from you and your business and commiting any other crime. (Makes sense does it not?)
4.Lane Bryant - Browns Chicken take these 2 moments did any of the VICTIMS have guns? Anyone around them have a gun? Did the criminals have guns? Would the outcome of these incidents perhaps been different if other people in the same store have guns? If a police officer was in the store at the time of crime taking place would it change the outcome? Do you think that he would pull out his gun? Could he save someone? Is the police officer that much smarter than you or I? With proper training do you think you could make a difference carring a gun? Well If I was ever in the position to save your life or your daughters life,your little boys life, (Get where I am going with this I hope so cause this is real) I would.
5.GUNS DO NOT KILL PEOPLE NEVER HAVE NEVER WILL. Sick mentally ill people that do not know the difference between good and bad kill people they prefer to use guns and usually do not have a FOID card.
6.Your neighbors firearm can save your life.
7.I sure do hope that if I was ever in a situation that required deadly force that one of the people around me could neutralize the situation and let me see another day.
8 .It is time to change the gun laws in Illinois back to where they should be and stop over lookin the facts of legal gun carry.
9.I think it is a crime to change our constitution we need to stop giving away our rights.
10.Legal GUN CARRY can save your life and make your life safer in Illinois.
Thanks for reading
The Voice
Sunday, July 26, 2009 
DALLAS — Police said they found a 3 1/2-week-old infant stabbed and decapitated in a Texas home on Sunday and his mother "screaming that she killed her baby" after the devil told her to do it. The mother, Otty Sanchez, 33, of San Antonio, was taken to a local hospital in critical condition with self-inflicted stab wounds to her chest and stomach, said San Antonio police spokesman Joe Rios. Investigators took a sword, a machete and a kitchen knife from the home. Officers also found two children unharmed at the home, though it wasn't immediately clear where they were taken. Sanchez will be charged with capital murder, Rios said. A spokeswoman at University Hospital in San Antonio said she couldn't release information on Sanchez's condition, but Sgt. Wes McCourt said her wounds didn't appear to be life threatening. Rios said that when police arrived, Sanchez was sitting on the couch "screaming that she killed her baby." Police said the baby was Scott Wesley Buchholtz-Sanchez. "She mentioned that someone or something told her to do it, she was hearing voices. So that leads us to believe that she was experiencing some type of mental crisis," Rios said. "The baby had obviously been decapitated." McCourt said she told investigators that the devil told her to kill her son.
HAVE YOU GUYS SEEN THIS CARTOON PRINTED IN THE NEW YORK POST BY SEAN DELONAS AND WHAT JOHN LEGEND ALONG WITH OTHER ARTIST HAVE HAD TO SAY?
Dear Editor:
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When you think of Memphis, you can"t help but think of Elvis. There is a new movie to be released soon, Alot of the movies in the past, has been of poor quality, and a discredit to Elvis. This movie is called...Lonely Street...... It is a comedy, and an older Elvis will be played by Robert Patrick. This is a must see trailer on You Tube. This is the first movie that I can see what an older Elvis would look like. There are several videos on the Trailer Channel, including the creating of the older Elvis. Very well done I must say. Go take a peep......... WHAT DO YOU THINK OF ROBERT PATRICK AS THE OLDER ELVIS?????
http://www.youtube.com/user/Lonelystreetthemovie
FRIDAY MAY 8, 2009
An overwhelmingly powerful Derecho ripped through the southern portions of the states of Missouri and Illinois this morning. Preliminary reports show two fatalities and numerous others injured. Damage has been reported in six different states and hail stones the size of baseballs covered the ground.
A Dercho (der-a-chi-o) is a violent and convective bowing line of thunderstorms producing damaging straigt-line winds in excess of 70 mph. This storm tends to hold together for a long duration of time and quickly moves from state to state damaing anything in its path. For the most part it's a rare event, but it has already happened twice now this Spring. This one in particular developed during the early morning hours, starting out as a very small cluster of thunderstorms. It quickly grew into a massive monster almost the size of the state of Missouri. During it's peak it appeared to look like a hurricane traveling over land with an actual eye. The front end began bowing outward several miles in advance of the storm as the first report of 90 mph plus winds struck in Jasper Missouri. The line then expanded both north and southward covering a ton of real estate. The wall of wind then marched east through the bootheel of Missouri and into southern Illinois where it spawned numerous tornadoes.
As of 2:00pm CDT there have been 8 confirmed tornadoes (5 in Missouri and 3 in Illinois), 17 reports of hail larger than an inch in diameter and over 100 reports of straight line wind gusts over 65 mph. The strongest wind gust that I have seen reported so far is 93 mph at Carthage in Jasper County Missouri. But several other areas have reported gusts well up into the 80's.
The good news is that even though this cluster of storms continues marching through the Blue Grass state at this hour it is beginning to weaken. Dynamically, the energy is not as great now. Radar returns show the center has closed up and the forward bowing motion of the front squall line is beginning to flatten out. This is still a very powerful storm and metro areas including Louisville and Bowling Green should be on alert and monitor this thing very closely. But hopefully we're starting to see the beginning of the end with this. Hopefully.
For a closer look at the damage go to www.spc.noaa.gov and click on the reports tab.
-CS
Dear Friends
Sometimes you go through such an experience or dreams that you wished it was real and you would have not woke up from that dream. I had such a brilliant experience in my dream that I started hating to be alive. Few years back, I was in india visiting my relatives. I tried few hotels but could not get a room so I had no option left but to go in a cheap small size newly built hotel in bombay and so I rented a room there.
I went to sleep about 1.a.m. and what I saw in my dream was such a thrilling experience that i still could not forget it after so many years and so I would like to share it with all the readers so you can also share the happiness and gratifying moment of it. I saw myself wandering with an old man who seems to be over 100 years of age with a white beard hanging down till his stomach. He was taking me around a big green lash garden which does not seems to have an ending corner. There were trees with hanging fruits and vegetables and some fruits and vegetables were so new to me that i was sure i have not seen or eaten them before. I ask the old man about a round hanging fruit (something similar to apple but with a very bright yellow color and very soft) if i could eat it and he handed me over that fruit and when I ate that , I still can't forget the sweetness and taste of it after so many years. It had a taste of something which I have never tasted in this world.
After eating that I started feeling thirsty and I requested that old man that if i can have a glass of water. He was shocked to hear the word water and he said there is no such thing as water here and if we feel thirsty we drink from running fountains that are connected with river and he took me to one of the fountain and the fountain was continuously running with some thing flowing out of it and it was just like milk. The old man told me that we all drink this milk when we are thirsty and the milk i drank from the fountain was so sweet and gratifying that i thought my thirst has ended for ever and now i would never feel thirsty again. Then wandering we reached a river which was full of white milk flowing instead of the water and the other thing was the mermaids all around the river . They were half body of beautiful girls around 16 to 18 years and half of the body of fish with such beautiful and pretty colors like rainbow colors.
We went a few steps more, and I saw a bunch of kids around a tall man and it seems to me that the man was bending down and giving hugs to the kids. As he heard some kids whispering about us standing at the back, the man stand straight up and i was shocked . The first word that came on my lips was Jesus . He had that curly ash blonde hair and french cut beard. He raised his hand to me as if saying hello to me and I was double confirmed that it was jesus because on his palm I saw the cross sign carved by making holes on his hand like if nails have been used to carved that cross. I asked the old man about jesus and he just smiled and said that you know him. I asked what was he doing with the kids and he told me that he was arranging for the places for kids where the kids can create their own private spaces and live in that assigned places because the heaven does not have an end and so the kids are all the time scattered around and when God want to talk to them it is difficult to gathered them together.
OH ; so that was heaven i was visiting and that shocking word made me fully awake in the world and I was literally crying when I woke up because that place was so good and i never missed anyone from the world and was feeling that it was the place where I belong to and this is the wrong place I have come to . im sure that no priest or relegious person may have seen heaven so clearly or have eaten the heaven fruits and have drank the heaven milk nor they have seen jesus alive with a distance of two feet. the best thing about this dream is that after so many years i still remember it
I went directly down to the reception to find out if something unusual have happened in this hotel or if somebody have seen something . It was early morning around 6 a.m. and the hotel people didn't know anything about it but one of the waiter by name of Rajesh who was like 55 years old man told me that he was working there since the hotel was built and the only thing he knows about it was that on that land it was an old graveyard where the hotel was built and the graveyard was so old that the relatives of the dead people might have also died and nobody knew about it. He told that this was told by his grandmother who also died 3 years back.
I was in shocked for few days and after two days we moved from there because the room was too small and I was with my mother . We got a reply from the other hotel and we moved there which had a big room on the terrace.
After that visit I came back to Pakistan and day and night started analyzing that dream of what message it was conveying to me . The only thing that came to my mind that I need to do something special in this world and I have been send to this world with a message. It was a very uneasy feelings for months and the dream was so strongly on my mind that I could not even forget a bit of it.
After a year i thought that i should built an orphanage all around the world and in each and every country and city of the world and make those kids i saw in my dream as resident of it. That was the only message that came to my mind but I knew i am not so rich to do so. Since that day I am trying my luck on all different schemes where it says that you could win a big amount. I just want to get the money and built an orphanage house all around the world.
Through this letter of dream i am requesting you to donate even one dollar and with that dollar I am going to send you the address of the orphanage where your name have been embraced that you have donated a dollar for this orphanage.You can have a receipt from me for this donation but please help me gather the amount so I can start building orphanage house all around the world. If I don't do this I feel that my life is going useless and I am not doing what was asked by my god to do in this world. Your one dolllar can erase your thousands of sins you have done in this world .
You can send me your donation check on
Nasreen Sohail
NORTHTOWN BRANCH
P.O.BOX 59044
CHICAGO IL.
60645
Let me mentioned that immediately after this incident I applied for the lottery for coming to U.S.A. and I was the winner of that and this way I got my citizenship of USA. I also started feeling that I have some spiritual power to save the human beings from all the suffering and I started practicing the powers of it. I saved so many of my relatives from severe sickness, accidents and problems which i do not wish to tell as it would be a publicity of your power and proudness which God would not like at all. The one incident I would like to mention here is when I thought my prayers would be answered
for the flood and tarnado that was supposed to come to houston after the destruction of katrina. i prayed that special prayer to divert the direction of that tornado before it hits the houston city as i have some very dear relatives in houston which was from our country. the result was that the tornado was totally without any strength and did not did any damage.even the city was evacuated but still no damage was done. i did plan to inform the media about my hidden psychic strength and prayers so i can even help the people in america by praying for them in their hard days and saving them from difficult situation but was scared because i am from different culture, relegion and country and i could be taken in wrong meaning.
I did pray for Mr. Obama to be the president at the last minute of election and vote counting and I knew that now nobody could create any hurdle and can stop him from becoming the president and so the history was created for the first time in the world when he become the president.
So if you people need me to do any prayers for you do not hesitate to contact me. The only thing you should remember is that the prayer should not in any war to harm somebody . It should only be requested for the wellbeing of humanbeings and for yourself. I will not charge you anything for this prayer if it is for the good cause but after the prayer is approved and completed you can donate even a dollar on the name of God so I can get some food from that money, offer the thankyou prayer on that food and distribute it in poor people. For prayer also you can write to me on the address mentioned above or you can contact me on nasresoha@yahoo.com
I am feeling so comfortable after writing and sharing with you my dream that i cannot describe in words. Since so many years i have been thinking about it and was unable to to anything about it but now i feel that you people are going to help me achieve my dream of building an orphanage houses all around the world.
I had some very important dreams after this incident also and in one of the dream I saw the last day of the world when everything was flying over to the sky and buildings were melting like snow in front of me and somebody from the sky told me that do not worry as this is the moment of the ending of the world and everything would be fine and all of the poeple will be alive in front of the god withing minutes .
Thanking you and God Bless You.
Nasreen Sohail.
If any of you have any links with Fox news, cltv or cbs2 wttw, I would be glad if you can help me appear on media or request this media people to come on t.v. live and describe my psychic powers and can help millions of people free of charge and also help collect donations to build orphanage houses in each city and country of the world
Pick a state...any state. I'm generally not the gambling type, but I would bet my eye teeth that there is some type of funeral or pre-need funeral contract fraud litigation active in all 50 states as we speak. The most recent headline whores are the Illinois Funeral Directors Association (IFDA), the Virginia Funeral Directors Association (VFDA) and a basketful of Mississippi funeral homes who sold pre-need funeral contracts, but somehow missed the fact that the money paid by trusting consumers was not a personal check made out to them.
Okay, one at a time...let's not get overwhelmed in the greed grab.
IFDA
As has been well documented in the Chicago Tribune and other news sources, the IFDA has $59 million in pre-need contract funds, paid by consumers, that are unaccounted for. It apparently just "poof"...disappeared. That is outside of the fact that, per the Illinois Burial Funds Act, contract sellers may keep 5% of the principal paid for "administrative fees" and 25% of the profit on principal. So, they really don't need to steal the money...a chunk of it is just given to them. Not to mention that Randall Earl, Executive Secretary of the National Funeral Directors Association and 2001 President of the IFDA, when it had only a measly $10.6 million dollar deficit, neglected to disclose to consumers that the IFDA was investing the trust funds in risky insurance policies and that investment management fees and commissions resulted in millions worth of profits for the IFDA and member funeral homes.
Don't stop now...it goes deeper...According to the AP, U.S. Senator Roland Burris has been subpoenaed to turn over his records, license issuance due diligence, analysis on issuance of license revocation, and...gasp!...amount he was paid as a lobbyist for the IFDA. You see, when Burris was State Comptroller in 1980, he issued a license to the IFDA allowing them to manage the "trust funds" investments. Call me crazy, but since when is a funeral director suddenly an investment specialist. But interestingly, in 2007, after his role as Comptroller, Burris was hired as a lobbyist for the IFDA, specifically to lobby then State Comptroller Dan Hynes. And, shockingly, one Illinois funeral director claimed on a blog that "our pre-need trust sales are the biggest in 3 years"...time for a wake up call for Illinois consumers. Hmmmm, this one continues to play out and gets more interesting...and more disturbing...by the moment.
VFDA
In an article posted on CNNMoney.com, according to Mike Nicodemus of Hollomen-Brown Funeral Home and Crematory, an average funeral at that particular funeral home costs $8,500...not chump change by any means. The VFDA promoted Shenandoah Life Insurance Company as it's funeral insurance provider of choice. Oh...did I mention that was before it was placed in receivership by the Circuit Court of Richmond, VA? It apparently does not have a balance sheet that adequately matches liabilities with assets. The FAQ document on the company's website states that policy holders should continue to pay renewal premiums to avoid disruption of claims, but does not guarantee actual payment of any claims, and at this time does not honor their "Required Minimum Distributions" on IRAs. What part of "required" am I missing? And the state of Virginia assures policy holders that interest will continue to accrue on annuities, but they cannot guarantee that this interest will actually be paid. And in more news...
Missouri
Missouri is a mess. According to WLBT3 news, several pre-need funeral contract sellers are deficient in their accounts. Here's a quick sample...Green Acres (Vicksburg, MS) has $221 dollars in their trust fund to cover over $373,000 in contract liabilities. Other offenders include Prentiss Memorial Gardens (Baldwyn, MS), Sunset Gardens Memorial Park (Laurel, MS), Liberty Memorial Park (Booneville, MS), Pinecrest Memorial Park (Pittsboro, MS), which has at least 50% of the over $378,000 in pre-need contract funds unaccounted for, Southern Mortuary (Jackson, MS), missing over $38,000, George West Funeral Home (Natchez, MS), $95,000 deficient, and Jackson Mortuary (Aberdeen, MS), the runt of the group with only $10,000 unaccounted for.
But, the sad and frustrating fact is that the Missouri debacle was completely avoidable. For instance, according to the Natchez Democrat, in July 2006, a cease and desist order was issued to George F. West Funeral Home to stop selling pre-need contracts and they were ordered to pay a $5,000 fine. They ignored both the order and the fine and continued operations as usual. After they were recently...(that would be years later)...again ordered to cease and desist business operations, Mr. West hired attorney Earl Banks, a member of the MS legislature to represent him. Mr. Banks, as a member of the MS legislature, has the right to request a continuance if the case he is working on has potential to interfere with his legislature duties and obligations. Thus...this case will potentially be continued until the end of Mr. Banks' legislative term. Does anyone smell a whiff of conflict of interest...
And Green Acres Memorial Park, founded in 1955 (sold twice before 2001), faithfully neglected to file the necessary and state mandatory annual financial reports, which the "regulatory authority" was fully aware of. According to the Vicksburg Post, it filed an incomplete perpetual-care trust fund financial report in December 2003, which was rejected by the "regulatory" authority. In October 2005, Stephanie Graham, acting President, signed a consent agreement with the State of Mississippi to file reports in accordance with the Mississippi Pre-Need Act (enacted January 2002). In November 2005, the state issued a formal request for the report. In March 2006, the Mississippi Secretary of State indicated that the report had not yet been filed. In November 2006, Green Acres was issued a formal cease and desist order and their license is revoked. Fast forward to July 2008, where the Chancery court again requested the annual reports and in October 2008 the Secretary of State initiated a formal audit. As of January 2009, the Secretary of State estimated a $373,000 deficit and temporarily froze all accounts.
Oh, did I mention that Mississippi Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann is quoted in the Natchez Democrat acknowledging "at this time the state has no process for follow-up"? Well, thanks for the news flash Mr. Secretary, but that is pretty obvious
Adding insult to injury...Service Corp. International (SCI)...in case you are unaware, this is the national funeral corporation with over 1,500 funeral homes and over 400 cemeteries that showed the ultimate disrespect to our brave military vets who were in route to Arlington National Cemetery by piling their bodies up in hallways, unrefrigerated garages and other areas and, according to the AP, the defendant in over $60M in lawsuits, has applied for a bail out from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Really...go ahead a pinch yourself...unfortunately, this is all true and our reality.
You can protect yourself and your family from fraud and manipulation. Please visit www.FuneralPlannersInc.com today to learn how we can help.
Haleigh Cummings, the 5yr old girl from Florida who mysteriously disappeared, while her father's 17yr old girlfriend was in the same room with her and her little 3yr old brother. Ronald Cummings, Haleigh's father, was supposedly at work for 12 hours that night. Him and girlfriend gave a few conflicting stories in the past few days. This 10 minute interview alone, raised my suspicions on these too. I hope they find little Haleigh and all the missing children in the world. I pray for their safe homecoming.
We've all heard of sugarcane, candy canes and hurricanes. But how many of you out there have actually ever heard of a landcane? Probably not to many of you. That's because the landcane is a semi rare event. But it just so happens that this could be the year where it becomes a house hold name. Especially for the folks living in the Central Plains States and Upper Midwest. This could also be the year where the city of Chicago goes up close and personal with one.
A land-cane begins as a cluster of thunderstorms, similar to that of a hurricane. However, the landcane develops over land hence it's name. This cluster of thunderstorms develops and intensifies off of what ever source its drawing its lift and energy from. For example... there could be a vorticity max aloft (upper level disturbance between 15,000 and 20,000 ft.) or a jetstreak creating the lift that is needed. As this cluster continues to grow and develop, eventually enough latent heat is released into the atmosphere that the pressures within this cluster begin to fall. Once the pressures fall a mini circulation develops and a landcane forms.
Just like a hurricane, the landcane develops banding or waves of energy. This banding then begins to wrap around the center of the circulation. As the pressures continue to fall the bands on the front end intensify. Winds have been known to exceed 100 mph! Numerous areas of rotation can develop as well producing tornadoes.
As you can imagine, the damage produced by a landcane can be quite severe. Especially if it moves over a highly populated area. The powerful straight-line winds can shove mobile homes off of there foundations as well as push semi's completely over on there sides. Uprooted trees, blown out windows and rooftops being blown off of buildings are examples of some of the other damage that can be produced from these extremely powerful mini storm systems.
So what does this mean for Chicago? With the pattern that is developing the city of Chicago will sit on the northern edge of southern ridges that pull east off the front range of the Rockies. Because of the developing cooling phase of the PDO and the positioning of the jestream this summer these ridges will only be allowed to move so far to the north before being bullied back south. Therefore, the city of Chicago will sit on what is known as the ring of fire or the periphery of the ridge. The flow around these ridges is clockwise. So lancanes, MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex's) and other clusters of storms that develop in the Central Plains will be forced into our neck of the woods.
As far as the number of landcanes we'll see this summer, that's still a difficult call. Especially considering the fact that only a small amount develop each year. However, as is the case with a hurricane it only takes one to come barreling through the Chicagoland area. And with the pattern that we're starting to move into the percentages are higher than average this year. So even though severe weather has been kept to a minimum thus far things could change as we get into Summer.
Here's another look at a landcane

Unbelievable...nonetheless it is true.
Within our daily reality of global and domestic economic meltdown, 8.5% US unemployment rate, TARP, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, auto bailouts, AIG, Madoff, toxic assets, mortgage scandals, swine flu outbreak, South Carolina burning, the Economic Stimulus Bill and tax day protests, Congress has chosen this prime opportunity to invest time and money into drafting and voting on legislation (House: S.Res.390; Senate: CR S14856) to, according to the bill "pay the Nation's collective debt of gratitude for all the hours and all the times they have put someone ahead of themselves by serving the living while caring for the dead". This would be National Funeral Director and Mortician Recognition Day. Am I missing something or does there seem to be a severe and distinct disconnect with what voters want and need their elected officials to be focusing on. Politics aside, if our congress wants to recognize a specific profession, there are certainly plenty of others that deserve a big thank you.
Sponsored by Senator Herbert Kohl (D-WI) and co-sponsored by Charles Schumer (D-NY), Mark L. Pryor (D-AR), Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Tim Johnson (D-SD). I'm sure that their constituents are so proud.
This piqued my curiosity on the funeral industry in each of their states, because it must be very different than what consumers in other states are experiencing...
Wisconsin: Sponsor Senator Herbert Kohl (D)
The WI funeral industry was rocked in mid-2008 by the fraud of Dickinson Family Funeral Home. Darrell Dickinson and Gary Sebranek, both funeral directors operating the funeral home, were convicted of 2 class I felonies for public assistance fraud for double-dipping into the WI Funeral and Cemetery Aids Program (WFCAP), which funds Medicaid and others who perish with no personal funds for funeral or cemetery expenses.
From 2003 to 2006, false claims were forged, submitted and paid from the WFCAP in the amount of $55,000 for 27 different funerals. The families and estates were also charged, so Dickinson and Sebranek were effectively paid twice. As if stealing from a state fund designed to help poor consumers pay for their loved ones funerals isn't appalling enough, Dickinson's punishment is purely outrageous. Found guilty on 2 felony counts of public assistance fraud, he was sentenced to 6 months incarceration, to serve the first 72 hours then be released on electric monitoring, pay restitution in the amount of $55,000 back to WFCAP, one-year of probation and must sell his share of Dickinson Family Funeral Home to his sons, who were employees at the time.
Doesn't seem to be much incentive to operate an honest funeral home in Wisconsin...but rest assured that as the state fund is fraudulently milked and consumers are stolen from, your Senator will propose a bill that "urges all Americans of all walks of life to embrace each of these special individuals"...yes, that is actual language from the bill. It's okay to laugh...
And by the way...the 4/17/09 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for WI was 8.5%. (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
New York: Co-Sponsor Senator Charles E. Schumer (D)
Where to even begin...how about with the 2008 widely publicized body harvesting scandal involving dozens of funeral homes under investigation and 3 different NY funeral homes, as well as 4 employees of the now defunct Biomedical Tissue Service being formally charged, for forging authorizations to allow tissue and body parts to be illegally harvested from 36 corpses for $1,000 a pop.
Or, in Nov 2005, Neil Foster Phillips, a Queens funeral director, and his wife Eloise Lyles-Phillips were charged with fraud involving over $20,000 in falsified and forged insurance claims paid for funeral related expenses.
Or maybe the 2008 FTC nationwide undercover investigation of funeral homes, inspecting 104 funeral homes in 7 states. Of the 18 funeral homes inspected in Nassau County, NY, 3 had minor violations and 2 had significant violations.
The Senator, who in February proudly proclaimed "To all of the chattering class that so much focuses on those little, tiny, yes porky amendments...The American people really don't care" clearly believes his rhetoric by taking the time to co-sponsor this bill.
As an aside...the 4/17/09 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for NY was 7.8%, 8.1% for NYC. (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Georgia: Co-Sponsor Senator Saxby Chambliss (R)
GA, whose state motto is "Wisdom, Justice, and Moderation"...and the home of one of the most gruesome of all funeral related fraud.
In March 2004, a $40M settlement was reached in the case of 300+ rotting corpses found scattered in a forest. The settlement will be paid out by Tri-State Crematory and 58 funeral homes across GA, AL and TN. No further comment on GA....whose 4/17/09 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 9.2%. (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ohio: Co-Sponsor Senator Sherrod Brown (D)
In early 2007, Brent Maders of the Mader-Peters Funeral Home was charged with stealing pre-paid funeral funds...you know the pre-need contracts that they sell "for your protection"...and falsifying death certificates to submit fraudulent insurance claims to the tune of over $700,000 over a 10 year period.
As a precursor to Maders, Mark Van Horn of Van Horn Funeral Homes was sentenced to 2 years in prison on 43 charges, and must pay restitution for stealing over $200,000 in pre-need funeral contracts. With instances dating back to 1990, but with most infractions occurring between 2000 - 2005, Van Horn simply did not forward the insurance premiums paid by 33 consumers to 2 different insurance companies, and instead just kept it for himself. In the infamous words of Steve Urkel..."did I do that?"...
Ohio was also 1 of the 7 states included in the 2008 FTC undercover investigation...Of the 15 Toledo-area funeral homes inspected, 1 had significant violations and 9 had minor violations.
Oh yeah...the 4/17/09 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for OH was 9.7%. (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Arkansas: Co-Sponsor Mark L. Pryor (D)
Let's start with the AR ranking in the 2008 FTC undercover investigation...15 funeral homes in Southeastern AR were investigated resulting in 11 with significant violations and 4 with minor violations...which translates into a score of 100% failure...
Or, the 2001 conviction of Phillip Warren Stephens and his wife Linda Lou Stephens, of the Wilson-Stephens Funeral Home, the former of which was sentenced to 11 years in state prison for failing to invest more than $118,000 in pre-need funeral contract funds, who like all of the other funeral directors involved in pre-need funeral fraud, conveniently forgot that the money entrusted to his funeral home by everyday consumers was not his personal rainy day fund.
On the bright side, while 100% of the funeral homes investigated failed, at least the state's unemployment rate is only 6.5%.
And lastly...
South Dakota: Co-Sponsor Tim Johnson (D)
I am pleased to report that I could find no really glaring and/or horrific funeral fraud, body harvesting or otherwise distasteful stories readily available for South Dakota. Congratulations...
Other than the funeral home employee charged in August 2008 with 1 count of soliciting a minor and 1 count of attempted sexual contact with a minor for using computers at the Miller Funeral Home where he was employed...funeral homes in SD seem to be staying out of the news.
And, SD boasts the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of the states included here...only 4.9%. (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
In summary...Whether the state you represent has glaring, embarrassing, and at times vomit-inducing disgusting incidents in the funeral industry is not the point. This is neither the time nor the place to spend resources and money to draft and vote on meaningless legislation, particularly when the line of work being praised and glorified is under a great deal of constant scrutiny from groups such as the Federal Trade Commission, Funeral Consumers Alliance and Funeral Planners Inc.
Be smart and do not rely on politicians to protect you when you can protect yourself. Please visit www.FuneralPlannersInc.com to learn how.
copyright Funeral Planners Inc. 2009
What a ridiculous summer this has been so far for us here in Chicago! Its bad enough that we have such a small window of nice weather this time of the year to begin with. But its even worse when that window shrinks because "Mother Nature" has an attitude! lol
July 2009 has felt anything but normal! So far we're on pace to set the record for the coldest July in recorded history. Through the first 18 days of the month average high temperatures in the city are a meager 76.3 degrees which represents the coldest start to the month ever. That previous record was set back in 1945 (76.5).
The reason? A stubborn negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has teamed up with a neutral to positive PNA (Pacific North America). Combined the two have created a summer thus far that we'd much rather forget! The NAO can shift from week to week. So to see it negative this time of the year is certainly nothing out of the ordinary. However, the fact that it has gone negative during the same time that the PNA has gone positive is just lousy timing! In its negative phase, the NAO brings troughing to the eastern half of the United States. This allows cool air from Canada to spill into the country.
The Pacific North American teleconnection pattern is one of the most prominent modes of low frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics. This is a global pattern that greatly influences temperatures not only across the country but across the entire world. When the PNA is in its positive mode it brings above average temperatures and ridging to western Canada. But as the saying goes, what goes up must come down! So while the west burns the east shivers. Below average temperatures develop across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the deep south.
So in terms of longitude and latitidue, both of these patterns are in their cooling phases for the city of Chicago. This means that if your looking for typical beach weather... day in and day out you better head to Miami. Now these patterns can last as long as two months or as little as a week. So it should be interesting to see how August pans out. But forecast guidence suggests that the PNA goes strongly positive as we head into August. That would be absolutely horrible for beach goers. However, it appears that we're going to catch a break because the NAO is forecasted to go positive in August with would eliminate the intense cooling from Canada. The fact that the PNA is forecasted to be so strongly positive though will prevent us from getting too hot next month. But at least normal temperatures (mid to upper 80s) look feasable.
Below is a link to the National Weather Service. This will show the forecasted phases of the PNA and the NAO.
Click here.